Identifying crops resilient to climate change and areas suitable for future cultivation is key to sustainable agriculture. In West African countries like Togo, cashew (Anacardium occidentale) cropping has gained importance with recent trade in kernels and balms increasing.
Aimed at mapping favourable habitats for cashew cultivation in Togo, this study used field-studied and GBIF-mediated occurrences combined with soil and climate data to model the potential distribution of the crop now and in the future. The authors relied on the MaxEnt algorithm, which they calibrated and tested to ensure a well-performing model.
Soil was by far the most important variable in the model followed by isothermality, temperature seasonality and precipitation. More than half the area of Togo was classified as highly favourable to cashew cultivation with unfavourable habitats restricted to areas in the northern and southern coastal regions.
When projected into climate scenarios for the year 2055, the model predicted significant increases of suitable habitat of 8–10 per cent, leaving more than 75 per cent of Togolese territory either moderately or highly suitable for future cashew cultivation.
By suggesting that cashew cropping represents a highly resilient strategy in light of climate change, the study’s findings may help secure locations for suitable cultivation and help pave the way for a sustainable future for Togolese farmers.