Holding close to 13 per cent of all trees of the world, the Amazonian lowlands is the largest rainforest block on Earth with a richness of up to 16,000 species. This immense tree diversity is threatened by both deforestation and climate change, and assessing the relative impacts of these threats is crucial to conservation.
In this study, researchers used enviromental suitability models based on GBIF-medicated occurrences of nearly 7,000 Amazonian trees to estimate impacts of climate change. They also used historical data to predicts future deforestation losses.
The authors found that by 2050 deforestation alone may cause a decline in richness of 19-36 percent, while climate change may account for 31-37 per cent. Combined, however, the effect may reach 58 per cent loss of richness—with the worst outlook in the roughly half of Amazonian forest outside current protected areas.
With the major importance of the rainforest in absorbing atmospheric C02 and regulating climate, this study urges expanded PA networks and a rapid halt to deforestation to help mitigate climate change and avoid species collapse in Amazonia.