African elephants play an important ecological role in savannah ecosystems as seed dispersers and vegetation modifiers, but their access to suitable food is increasingly threatened by human conflict and changing climates. To better understand how elephant populations in West Africa may be impacted by changing landscapes and, in-turn food availability, this study assessed the potential range shift of 14 plant species—known to be consumed by elephants—under different climate scenarios.
Researchers created distribution maps for each of the target food species by accessing occurrence records from GBIF and other sources. Coupling occurrences to bioclimatic variables for temperature and moisture, they then predicted both present-day and future food ranges (under low and high carbon emission scenarios) for African elephants. Seed dispersal was also considered to predict food species' adaptability to different habitats.
The study found that annual precipitation, temperature and soil composition were the most significant factors in predicting food resource range shifts. Under future climate predictions half of the species were expected to experience a moderate range reduction, while the other half would experience a moderate to high range expansion. Seed dispersal was identified as a key ecological constraint in potential range expansion, leading to generally poor seed occupation of suitable habitat under future climate scenarios.
These results indicate that elephants will likely experience changed availability of future food resources in West Africa, with species more resilient to climate change likely to represent a higher proportion of elephants' diet. The findings suggest that conservation measures will need to balance increasing elephant populations with potentially decreasing food availability, or look to establish new ranges for elephants with a sustainable supply of diverse food resources.