Species distribution models are commonly used for predicting the effects of climate change including potential extinctions. Such models treat species independently and neglect interactions between species.
Based on a rich trait dataset of seven European pollinator networks, this study explores potential climate-induced extinctions while considering mutual dependencies and thus co-extinctions. Adding GBIF-mediated occurrences, authors progressively projected models of 244 plant species into future climates, assigning a co-extinction probability each time an interaction would be lost.
The results show substantial variability across networks with dramatic increases in co-extinction rates in the Mediterranean networks—compared to the other networks. In fact, the 2080 projection shows a near-doubling of climate-induced extinctions when potential co-extinctions are considered.
Not surprisingly, some trait profiles are less likely to be driven to climatic extinction than others, however, the same profile may indeed have a significantly larger risk of disappearing through subsequent co-extinctions.