Examining two anuran invasions of wetlands in British Columbia, Canada, this study evaluates the performance of occupancy models versus ecological niche models (ENMs) for predicting invasive ranges. The researchers used GBIF-mediated occurrences for both the green frog (Lithobates clamitans) and American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) to build the distribution models and compared them with occupancy models. They discovered that while ENMs perform well in predicting the invasive ranges of a climate-driven species like the green frog, they are less reliable with habitat specialists such as the American bullfrog, for which the occupancy model performs better. The researchers conclude by pointing out that relying on climate data can be helpful for predicting occurrences of invasive species, it might not tell the whole story.
Murray RG, Popescu VD, Palen WJ and Govindarajulu P (2015) Relative performance of ecological niche and occupancy models for predicting invasions by patchily-distributed species. Biol Invasions. Springer Science + Business Media, 2691–2706. Available at doi:10.1007/s10530-015-0906-3.