The forest industry in Sweden sustains large financial losses every year due to insect infestations. Since climate change may increase the range of certain pest species, this study aimed to predict potential outbreak candidates. Using GBIF-mediated occurrences the researchers created models of potential distribution of 30 prospective pest species in the year 2070, which predict significant expansions of the distribution ranges across most species. Certain insects are likely to increase their geographic range by more than 90 per cent, and only a single species expects to see its range contract. These results combined with the potential stressor of a warmer climate points to bleak prospects for present-day Swedish trees and forests.
The potential effect of climate change on the geographical distribution of insect pest species in the Swedish boreal forest
Hof, A. R., & Svahlin, A. (2015). The potential effect of climate change on the geographical distribution of insect pest species in the Swedish boreal forest. Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research, 31(1), 29–39. doi:10.1080/02827581.2015.1052751