Hey, Joe: The future of coffee

This study maps the current locations of Arabica production using GBIF-mediated occurrences along with known locations of coffee farms, and then, using current climate data, models Arabica production onto so-called agro-ecological zones.

Coffea arabica, or Arabica coffee, accounts for 75-80 per cent of the world's production of coffee. Previous studies estimate that suitable areas for coffee production will be reduced by 50 per cent by 2050. This study maps the current locations of Arabica production using GBIF-mediated occurrences along with known locations of coffee farms, and then, using current climate data, models Arabica production onto so-called agro-ecological zones (AEZs). Combined with global climate models the researchers identify novel areas suitable for coffee production, and suggest alternative sites within AEZs that might be more robust in future climates.  They also seek to inform coffee variety trials and to suggest providing farmers with guidelines in one type of AEZ likely to convert into another type in the future.

Citations

Bunn, C., Läderach, P., Pérez Jimenez, J. G., Montagnon, C., & Schilling, T. (2015). Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change. PloS One, 10(10), e0140490. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0140490

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