Invasive alien species represent one of the main threats to marine biodiversity. Human activities are impacting patterns of invasions by providing new routes of introduction, while at the same time climate change is altering environmental suitability.
In the paper studying potential fish invaders in the Mediterranean, researchers developed an empirical index for the Invasive Potential (IP) of a species assessing a series of traits related to reproduction, nutrition, morphology and means of introduction.
Applying the framework to 13 candidate species with origins in the Red Sea or Atlantic Ocean, the authors demonstrated a significant correlation between IP and the current observed spreading of the species. Traits related to reproduction, especially, determined high invasion potential.
Using occurrence data from the Ocean Biodiversity Information System (OBIS), GBIF and others combined with data on seafloor topography, distance to coast, surface salinity and temperature variables, the authors modelled the current and future distributions of the species with the highest IP scores.
The models found the highest overall contemporary suitability for invaders in the South-Eastern part of the Mediterranean, while the northern part and the Adriatic Sea had relatively low suitability. In these waters, however, projections under future climate scenarios predicted significant increases in suitability, highlighting the need for revised management strategies for protected areas and fisheries in the region.