Due to lack of access to modern healthcare and high costs of anti-malaria drugs, the use of traditional plant medicines is common, especially in rural communities. In Kenya, 80 per cent of the population rely on local plants for fighting malaria, but unprecedented rates of climate change may soon threaten access to relevant medicinal species.
In this study, researchers used GBIF-mediated occurrence data for 21 known anti-malarial plants and three mosquito vectors and modelled their distributions, overlap and the impact of future climates. The authors focussed on Samburu County in the Rift Valley, a stronghold for anti-malarial plants also burdened with high incidence of malaria.
Their models showed a significant overlap between habitat currently suitable for vectors and anti-malarial plants. When forecasting using climate data for 2050 and 2070, most regions, however, stood to lose anti-malarial plant species, with overall richness predicted to decrease in all climate scenarios.
For the vectors, the pattern was the opposite, and the authors predicted that suitable mosquito habitat would increase from 37 per cent to 65 per cent of Samburu County. This marked a significant increase in the overlap between areas of low anti-malarial plant richness and suitable habitat for vectors, thus increasing the overall vulnerability to disease.
With these results, the authors call for increased focus on in situ conservation of anti-malarial plants and vector monitoring and control, especially in areas likely to be most impacted by future climate patterns.