Predicting the future from previous climate-induced changes in Pistacia

In hope of gaining a longer-term perspective of how diverse climatic conditions have previously affected species distributions, this study used the relatively genetically closely related species from the genus Pistacia as a case study. 125,000 GBIF-mediated records formed the basis for distribution models for ten Pistacia species combining it with climate, landscape and soil data to predict probable distributions from 121,000 years ago to 2100. Results suggest that deciduous species have greater tolerance to extreme temperatures than evergreens, and that the genus may have originated in boreal forests before migrating in response to climate change.