Extracted from the Mendeley GBIF Public Library.
Ramirez-Cabral N, Kumar L, Taylor S (2016)
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 218-219 102-113.
Crops experience different climate stresses during development. The magnitude of damage will depend on the phenological stage of the crop and the stress duration. Climate change could intensify some or all of these stresses, thus negatively impacting agriculture. An assessment of staple crop productivity, quality and climatically suitable areas under climate change conditions is necessary to undertake any global initiatives to tackle food security issues. The common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) is a staple crop and the main source of proteins and nutrients in Africa and Latin America. The purpose of this study is to develop a process-oriented niche model to assess the impacts of climate change on the current and future potential distribution of common bean and to use this model to investigate the changes in heat, cold, dry and wet stresses under climate change. We used A2 and A1B emission scenarios and two different global climate models, CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, for the years 2050 and 2100. Our results indicate future climate conditions are more favorable for common bean cultivation in the Northern Hemisphere, but are less favorable in the Southern Hemisphere. Heat and dry stresses are the main factors limiting and reducing common bean distribution under current and future projected conditions. Africa and Latin America are projected to decrease with respect to suitability for common bean cultivation. The model projections indicate that a shift in the common bean productive areas is highly likely with a loss of suitability of the current common bean cultivation areas and an increase in cold regions such as Canada, the Nordic countries and Russia. The results indicate the likelihood of changes in climatic suitability and the distribution of common bean at a global scale under a future climate, which will affect regions where this legume is a staple crop and an important source of household income. Regions in the Northern Hemisphere could take advantage of the increase in suitability by increasing the production and exportation of this grain.
Keywords: Abiotic stresses, Agriculture suitability, CLIMEX, Climate change, Phaseolus vulgaris L.
Sniderman J, Woodhead J, Hellstrom J, Jordan G, Drysdale R, Tyler J et al. (2016)
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 1520188113-.
The Pliocene epoch (5.3-2.6 Ma) represents the most recent geological interval in which global temperatures were several degrees warmer than today and is therefore considered our best analog for a future anthropogenic greenhouse world. However, our understanding of Pliocene climates is limited by poor age control on existing terrestrial climate archives, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, and by persistent disagreement between paleo-data and models concerning the magnitude of regional warming and/or wetting that occurred in response to increased greenhouse forcing. To address these problems, here we document the evolution of Southern Hemisphere hydroclimate from the latest Miocene to the middle Pliocene using radiometrically-dated fossil pollen records preserved in speleothems from semiarid southern Australia. These data reveal an abrupt onset of warm and wet climates early within the Pliocene, driving complete biome turnover. Pliocene warmth thus clearly represents a discrete interval which reversed a long-term trend of late Neogene cooling and aridification, rather than being simply the most recent period of greater-than-modern warmth within a continuously cooling trajectory. These findings demonstrate the importance of high-resolution chronologies to accompany paleoclimate data and also highlight the question of what initiated the sustained interval of Pliocene warmth.
Keywords: Neogene, aridification, paleoclimate, pollen, speleothems
Taylor S, Kumar L (2016)
Will climate change impact the potential distribution of a native vine ( Merremia peltata ) which is behaving invasively in the Pacific region?
Ecology and Evolution.
Merremia peltata is a species with uncertain status in the island nations of the Pacific region. It has been designated introduced and invasive in some countries whereas it is considered native in others. Recent increase in its abundance across some island landscapes have led to calls for its designation as an invasive species of environmental concern with biological control being suggested as a control strategy. Climate change will add to the complications of managing this species since changes in climate will influence its range limits. In this study, we develop a process-oriented niche model of M. peltata using CLIMEX to investigate the impacts of climate change on its potential distribution. Information on the climatic requirements of M. peltata and its current geographic distribution were used to calibrate the model. The results indicate that under current climate, 273,132 km2 of the land area in the region is climatically unsuitable or marginal for M. peltata whereas 664,524 km2 is suitable to highly suitable. Under current climate, areas of climatic suitability for M. peltata were identified on the archipelagos of Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. By the end of the century, some archipelagos like Fiji, Hawaii, New Caledonia and Vanuatu will probably become more suitable while PNG and Solomon Islands become less suitable for M. peltata. The results can be used to inform biosecurity planning, management and conservation strategies on islands.
Keywords: Biological invasion, CLIMEX, Merremia peltata, climate change, niche modelling, pacific region
Albuquerque F, Beier P (2015)
Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology.
In systematic conservation planning, species distribution data for all sites in a planning area are used to prioritize each site in terms of the site's importance toward meeting the goal of species representation. But comprehensive species data are not available in most planning areas and would be expensive to acquire. As a shortcut, ecologists use surrogates, such as occurrences of birds or another well-surveyed taxon, or land types defined from remotely sensed data, in the hope that sites that represent the surrogates also represent biodiversity. Unfortunately, surrogates have not performed reliably. We propose a new type of surrogate, predicted importance, that can be developed from species data for a q% subset of sites. With species data from this subset of sites, importance can be modeled as a function of abiotic variables available at no charge for all terrestrial areas on Earth. Predicted importance can then be used as a surrogate to prioritize all sites. We tested this surrogate with 8 sets of species data. For each data set, we used a q% subset of sites to model importance as a function of abiotic variables, used the resulting function to predict importance for all sites, and evaluated the number of species in the sites with highest predicted importance. Sites with the highest predicted importance represented species efficiently for all data sets when q = 25% and for 7 of 8 data sets when q = 20%. Predicted importance requires less survey effort than direct selection for species representation and meets representation goals well compared with other surrogates currently in use. This less expensive surrogate may be useful in those areas of the world that need it most, namely tropical regions with the highest biodiversity, greatest biodiversity loss, most severe lack of inventory data, and poorly developed protected area networks.
Keywords: conservation planning, planeación de la conservación, prioritization, priorización, reresentación de especies, species representation, surrogacy, sustitución
Alsos I, Ware C, Elven R (2015)
Increased human activity and climate change are expected to increase the numbers and impact of alien species in the Arctic, but knowledge of alien species is poor in most Arctic regions. Through field investigations over the last 10 years, and review of alien vascular plant records for the high Arctic Archipelago Svalbard over the past 130 years, we explored long term trends in persistence and phenology. In total, 448 observations of 105 taxa have been recorded from 28 sites. Recent surveys at 18 of these sites revealed that alien species had disappeared at half of them. Investigations at a further 49 sites characterised by former human activity and/or current tourist landing sites did not reveal any alien species. Patterns of alien species distribution suggest that greater alien species richness is more likely to be aligned with ongoing human inhabitation than sites of transient use. The probability of an alien species being in a more advanced phenological stage increased with higher mean July temperatures. As higher mean July temperatures are positively correlated with more recent year, the latter finding suggests a clear warming effect on the increased reproductive potential of alien plants, and thus an increased potential for spread in Svalbard. Given that both human activity and temperatures are expected to increase in the future, there is need to respond in policy and action to reduce the potential for further alien species introduction and spread in the Arctic.
Keywords: Alien Arctic, Climate change, Management, Non-native species, Phenology
Alter S, Meyer M, Post K, Czechowski P, Gravlund P, Gaines C et al. (2015)
Molecular ecology 24(7) 1510-22.
Arctic animals face dramatic habitat alteration due to ongoing climate change. Understanding how such species have responded to past glacial cycles can help us forecast their response to today's changing climate. Gray whales are among those marine species likely to be strongly affected by Arctic climate change, but a thorough analysis of past climate impacts on this species has been complicated by lack of information about an extinct population in the Atlantic. While little is known about the history of Atlantic gray whales or their relationship to the extant Pacific population, the extirpation of the Atlantic population during historical times has been attributed to whaling. We used a combination of ancient and modern DNA, radiocarbon dating and predictive habitat modelling to better understand the distribution of gray whales during the Pleistocene and Holocene. Our results reveal that dispersal between the Pacific and Atlantic was climate dependent and occurred both during the Pleistocene prior to the last glacial period and the early Holocene immediately following the opening of the Bering Strait. Genetic diversity in the Atlantic declined over an extended interval that predates the period of intensive commercial whaling, indicating this decline may have been precipitated by Holocene climate or other ecological causes. These first genetic data for Atlantic gray whales, particularly when combined with predictive habitat models for the year 2100, suggest that two recent sightings of gray whales in the Atlantic may represent the beginning of the expansion of this species' habitat beyond its currently realized range.
Keywords: Animals, Arctic Regions, Atlantic Ocean, Biological, Climate Change, DNA, Ecosystem, Fossils, Genetic Variation, Haplotypes, Mitochondrial, Mitochondrial: genetics, Models, Molecular Sequence Data, Phylogeography, Population Dynamics, Sequence Analysis, Whales, Whales: genetics
Bateman B, Pidgeon A, Radeloff V, VanDerWal J, Thogmartin W, Vavrus S et al. (2015)
Global change biology.
Climate change may drastically alter patterns of species distributions and richness, but predicting future species patterns in occurrence is challenging. Significant shifts in distributions have already been observed, and understanding these recent changes can improve our understanding of potential future changes. We assessed how past climate change affected potential breeding distributions for landbird species in the conterminous United States. We quantified the bioclimatic velocity of potential breeding distributions, that is, the pace and direction of change for each species' suitable climate space over the past 60 years. We found that potential breeding distributions for landbirds have shifted substantially with an average velocity of 1.27 km yr(-1) , about double the pace of prior distribution shift estimates across terrestrial systems globally (0.61 km yr(-1) ). The direction of shifts was not uniform. The majority of species' distributions shifted west, northwest, and north. Multidirectional shifts suggest that changes in climate conditions beyond mean temperature were influencing distributional changes. Indeed, precipitation variables that were proxies for extreme conditions were important variables across all models. There were winners and losers in terms of the area of distributions; many species experienced contractions along west and east distribution edges, and expansions along northern distribution edges. Changes were also reflected in the potential species richness, with some regions potentially gaining species (Midwest, East) and other areas potentially losing species (Southwest). However, the degree to which changes in potential breeding distributions are manifested in actual species richness depends on landcover. Areas that have become increasingly suitable for breeding birds due to changing climate are often those attractive to humans for agriculture and development. This suggests that many areas might have supported more breeding bird species had the landscape not been altered. Our study illustrates that climate change is not only a future threat, but something birds are already experiencing.
Keywords: Maxent, North American breeding landbirds, anthropogenic land use, climate change, distribution shifts, species distribution model, species richness
Booth T, Broadhurst L, Pinkard E, Prober S, Dillon S, Bush D et al. (2015)
Forest Ecology and Management 347 18-29.
The purpose of this paper is to review studies relevant to potential climate change impacts on natural stands of eucalypts, with a view to identifying not only specific lessons for the management of native forests in Australia but also some general lessons relevant to native forests anywhere. More than 800 species of Eucalyptus are found naturally across Australia, as well as species such as E. deglupta and E. urophylla in countries north of Australia. Eucalypts provide a particularly interesting opportunity to examine the likely impacts of climate change, as many species have been widely evaluated in trials within and outside Australia, often under conditions that are warmer and sometimes drier than those found within their natural distributions. Results from these trials indicate the intrinsic ability of particular eucalypt species and provenances to tolerate conditions that are somewhat different from those experienced within their natural distributions. Eucalypts have particularly poor dispersal capabilities, so natural stands will be generally unable to track changing climatic conditions. Therefore, in the period to the end of the present century a key issue for each eucalypt species under climate change is whether its intrinsic adaptability will be sufficient to allow it to survive where it is currently located. Their ability to survive will be affected not only by climatic, but also atmospheric changes, which will affect important processes such as photosynthesis and water exchange. Again eucalypts provide a useful group for climate change studies as their commercial significance has led to various enhanced carbon dioxide experiments being carried out, as well as detailed genomic studies. This review considers eucalypts in relation to four main areas; (i) resources and characteristics (natural distributions and introduced distributions including their adaptability/plasticity), (ii) analysis tools (species distribution models and growth models), (iii) physiological factors (including temperature, drought and enhanced CO2) and (iv) interactions with other species (including pests and diseases). Priorities for future research are identified. It is concluded that analyses that do not allow for the intrinsic climatic adaptability of tree species, as well as their particular dispersal capabilities, are unlikely to provide reliable predictions of climate change impacts.
Keywords: Adaptation, Carbon dioxide, Genomics, Simulation models, Species distribution models, Vulnerability
Booth T (2015)
Using a global botanic gardens database to help assess the capabilities of rare eucalypt species to cope with climate change
International Forestry Review 17(3) 259-268.
Climate change impact analyses have focused mostly on natural distributions of plants and have generally ignored their intrinsic climatic adaptability. This may produce unreliable predictions of impacts. Eucalypts are potentially instructive for climate change studies, as many species have been assessed in commercial forestry trials outside the conditions of their natural distributions. However, rare eucalypt species, which usually have limited natural distributions, and are likely to be most susceptible to climate change, are often small or multi-stemmed species, which have generally not been included in commercial trials. This study used information for 12 rare eucalypt species from the PlantSearch database of Botanic Gardens Conservation International and assessed if this information can assist determining their climatic adaptability. The results should be treated with caution, but indicate that most of the 12 species are growing at some botanic gardens under annual mean temperature conditions that are warmer than where they occur naturally
Keywords: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, EUCALYPTS, FORESTRY, PHENOTYPIC PLASTICITY
Byers J, Smith R, Pringle J, Clark G, Gribben P, Hewitt C et al. (2015)
Scientific reports 5 12436.
Strategies for managing biological invasions are often based on the premise that characteristics of invading species and the invaded environment are key predictors of the invader's distribution. Yet, for either biological traits or environmental characteristics to explain distribution, adequate time must have elapsed for species to spread to all potential habitats. We compiled and analyzed a database of natural history and ecological traits of 138 coastal marine invertebrate species, the environmental conditions at sites to which they have been introduced, and their date of first introduction. We found that time since introduction explained the largest fraction (20%) of the variability in non-native range size, while traits of the species and environmental variables had significant, but minimal, influence on non-native range size. The positive relationship between time since introduction and range size indicates that non-native marine invertebrate species are not at equilibrium and are still spreading, posing a major challenge for management of coastal ecosystems.
Keywords: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, EUCALYPTS, FORESTRY, PHENOTYPIC PLASTICITY